These are the signs of the times. From all indications, sales of consumer electronics in the US will be taking a beating. A survey was conducted by ChangeWave between February 18-25, and the results just came out. Some 4,427 people were asked about their outlook on popular gadgets, including digital cameras, mp3 players, video game consoles and other high-tech guilty pleasures.

The verdict? Only 19% of survey respondents say they’ll spend more on electronics over the next 90 days. That’s bad, very bad when compared to 33% who say they’ll spend less. Below is a chart of the survey results over the last 15 months. From this, it’s easy to see that people are in the mood to spend just before Christmas. After that, the trend is that they don’t spend as much, which is understandable. However, the latest survey posts the widest gap ever recorded for the blue and the red lines at 14%. We’ll have to wait and see if this divergence continues or if the gap narrows to more acceptable levels in the succeeding months.

Consumer Electronics Trends: Hardest Hit Stores

Don’t be scared. The howls of pain you’re hearing now is just Best Buy, the hardest hit of all the big retail outlets. Only 45% of people are now planning to buy from them, down 6pts from November 2007 figures. By any standards, that’s still a mammoth share. Although in this economic climate, that 6pts decrease will hurt. Circuit City, Amazon and Apple are all down 3pts, while eBay is down 2pts. Looks like a lot of the heavyweights took a punch. The only top retailers bucking the electronics downturn are Costco (23%) and Wal-Mart (12%) - both of which look set to maintain their market share moving forward.

Hardest Hit Items

Several perennial favorites will be hit hard over the next 90 days, including LCD TVs (10%; down 4-pts), digital cameras (7%; down 4-pts), cell phones (8%; down 6-pts) and iPods (2%; down 4-pts) - all which are down significantly from a year ago.

Despite the sudden lack of enthusiasm for popular gadgets, there are still some bright spots in consumer electronics. The Nintendo Wii remains wildly popular among consumers, with 8% saying they plan to buy one in the next 12 months - up 3-pts from a year ago. I think we can attribute this to the shortage of Wiis since last Christmas. A lot of people are still trying to get a hold of one. The problem is that it’s not always on stock. Or if there’s any on a certain store, they’re already reserved to the employees and employees’ friends, barely making it to the shelves. Nintendo has to step it up in manufacturing efficiency. You’ve got demand. Can you meet the supply?

Another bright spot lies in the extraordinary surge in demand for High-Def DVD players, where 9% of respondents say they are planning to buy a Blu-ray DVD player in the next 90 days. Sony just had a huge sigh of relief now that it won the next generation DVD format war. The curse of the Betamax has been lifted.

Will the Tax Rebate Check Help?

The government has stepped in to avert a crisis. The Fed has been making big moves, and then there’s tax rebates. How effective is it, exactly? As written in ChangeWave’s recent consumer spending report - No Signs of a Bottom - only 7% say they’re likely to spend their tax rebates on consumer electronics.

By comparison, a strong majority say they’re likely to use the special rebate to either pay down debt (33%), invest the money (23%), or save the money (21%). Being a penny-pincher myself, those answers make a lot of sense.

The survey firm concludes that, “There is frightfully little in our findings to suggest the economic stimulus package will jumpstart consumer spending on popular electronic devices. Rather, our findings point to an increasingly preoccupied American consumer who has fallen out of love with gadgets - at least temporarily.”

Hold on tight to your nunchuks, there’s gonna be tough times ahead.